Equity analysis: Cyclical stocks.....?

There is a difference between being able to identify cycles and being able to benefit from them. It may be true that certain businesses will exhibit seasonal cycles due to the nature of their business, retail is very dependent on the holiday season, there's a seasonal demand to fuel and certainly food costs are dependent on the harvests. However it's the nature of the market that any advantage from easily predicted cycles will be priced out of the market. Just as you can not take advantage of the ex-dividend date by buying stocks just before and selling just after merely to reap the dividends (the market prices the stock such that you would lose exactly what you've gained from the dividends) so too would the prices adjust to the cycles. If you take the opportunity value of the money into account, you'll find that there is no benefit in easily predicted cycles.